The group as Nostradamus in this day and age
Wobblers and lenient of mind – it can freeze, but also thaw – pay attention! The American psychologist Philip Tetlock has shown that people who are questioning matters and are flexible, are predicting much better than so-called ‘hedgehogs’.
Compared to the latter group, or experts who always apply the same logic, doubting people explore more alternatives. The combination of their explorative attitude and their receptiveness to new solutions improves their foresight.
A second Tetlock study proves that groups predict better than individuals. There are, however, two conditions: the group must be able to collect conflicting information and the members are capable of mutual professional criticism. Measured in predictability, the advantage according to Tetlock can be up to 50%.
Modern visionary? Or aspirations? Tetlock has the following tips:
- Always question your intuition and gather information from as diverse sources as possible
- Make predictions testable and measurable, otherwise you can not improve yourself
- Approach problems from a helicopter perspective
- Divide problems into manageable subproblems
- Reasoning in probabilities
- Work with scenarios and review decisions on new relevant information
- Stay motivated. Sometimes you just sit next to it
Looking for a good decision? Prepare it in groups. The more accurately predicted, the better the basis for a successful decision.